In Search of Goldilocks

By Michael Knox

The Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has commented that the US recession is “very likely” over. He said “very likely” because he meant “very likely”. In spite of this, the market interpreted his words as “certainly”. We think that the US GDP is definitely positive in the third quarter. We think it will come in at a surprisingly strong 3.7% annualised. In spite of this, we agree with Bernanke that the recession is only “very likely” over.

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