The Market Wrap 18-7-14

By Jason Fittler

The chart below shows you a long-term view of the market.

Showing the peak in 2007, the lows of 2009, and how the market has travelled since the lows.

You can see the period between late 2009 and mid 2013 where the market was volatile and basically went sideways.

Since 2013 the market has been moving up.

Over the past 12-months, volatility has been at an all time low. Which is prompting both Bear and Bulls to call a big move in the market.

Naturally they are both calling different directions. 

A passenger plane shot down last week made little difference to the market.

Couple with this the amount of conflict in the world at present and still volatility remains low.

What seems to becoming clear is that the market has moved on from the GFC and is now looking forward.

Median term (in the next 3 years or so) I would expect to see the market move back towards 6800.

Do not get me wrong this will not be a nice straight line, but the full recovery is underway.

With the Carbon Tax now gone and the Mining Tax gasping its last breath I expect that we are about 3-5 years off our economy hitting full speed again.